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Summery
The constitutional article on the protection of the Alps, introduced in 1994, enshrines the limitation of road freight traffic across the Alps in the Swiss constitution. Although the number of transalpine lorry trips has decreased by nearly 10% since 2000, Switzerland is far from reaching the goals it has set itself. The number of lorry trips increased in 2007 and 2008, which further prompts the question of whether the official policy for transferring freight from road to rail is sufficient. The latter is to a great extent based on the effect of the Gotthard base tunnel (GBT), scheduled to be opened by the end of 2017.
The impact of the GBT in terms of productivity and freight transfer has not yet been quantified. This study aims to close this gap.
The productivity gains that can be realised with the GBT were calculated on the basis of nine much-frequented routes. The following modes of transport were considered: lorries, accompanied combined transport (truck on train TT), unaccompanied combined transport (UCT) and wagon load transport (WLT).
The average productivity effect of the GBT on rail transport amounts to 4%. The most significant gains can be made in the TT sector, followed by UCT and WLT. The GBT only has an effect on the Swiss section of the routes concerned, meaning that the productivity effect decreases as the transportation distance increases. Since the majority of goods are transported over long distances, the considerable productivity effects visible within Switzerland only have a limited effect on overall transport.
It is not possible to forecast the transfer effect precisely. The maximum change in the modal split amounts to 2.5 percent. This means that the rail market share would increase from 62.0% to 64.5% and the road share would decrease from 38.0% to 35.5%. This effect is clearly insufficient to reach the planned goal of 650,000 transalpine truck journeys through Switzerland. This goal would require transfer figures of a completely different order. Assuming that overall freight traffic increases to 60 million net tonnes by 2019, the road market share would have to decrease by about 15%. Overall, this means that the GBT will certainly be a very important prerequisite for an efficient transfer policy.
However, an effective and target-oriented transfer from road to rail requires a whole range of further measures, such as the Alpine Crossing Exchange, an idea launched by the Alpine Initiative, the introduction of an emission trading system and/or modifications to road pricing. The GBT plays an important role in a more effective and smooth transfer of freight from road to rail, because it not only improves rail links but also increases rail capacity.
Translation: Alpine Initiative